Plan Bleu activities

2007-2008 : Plan Bleu is carrying out a regional study on the topic « Energy and climate change in the Mediterranean », with the financial support of European Investment Bank. The first steering committee of this study was held in Sophia Antipolis on October 22nd, 2007.
Through a review of the literature, existing studies (e.g. Blue Plan and studies from other multilateral financing institutions) and specific new analysis, the specific objectives of the study are three-fold: 1/ to update information on climate change scenarios in the region, 2/ to evaluate concrete measures and estimate the economic costs to mitigate GHG, especially CO2, emissions from energy production and consumption, 3/ to review the need, scope and costs and benefits of alternative adaptation scenarios, given that a degree of climate change is inevitable.
At the end of 2007 two events were organised in the framework of this project : Energaïa and MEDITEP.

2006-2007 : Plan Bleu has been assigned to follow up the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development and to deeper analyze “energy – climate change” priority field from 2006-2007 onwards. To do so, Plan Bleu has bring together specialized partners and produced a program of activities. More information...

1989 : 3rd chapter of the report "Blue Plan : Futures for the Mediterranean basin" published in 1989, is devoted to energy topic.

1993 : a study edited by Michel Grenon entitled « Energie et Environnement en Méditerranée – Enjeux et prospective », published in the series "Les Fascicules du Plan Bleu", Economica publisher.

2005  : Chapter Energy of the new Plan Bleu's report : "A sustainable future for the Mediterranean: the Blue Plan's environment and development outlook"

Observation: 20% waste

Over the last thirty years, the demand for primary commercial energy has more than doubled in the Mediterranean Basin (1970 to 2000). In 2000, fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) were the prevalent form of energy in the Mediterranean - over 75% consumption in the North and 96% in the South and East -followed by nuclear and hydraulic electricity. More recently, for the past few decades, the very strong progression of natural gas over oil has been observed. Renewable energies, excluding biomass, account for 3% of the commercial energy demand of Mediterranean countries. In many countries, cost and tax structures do not encourage energy savings or the development of renewable energies.

The foreseeable future: 65% growth in demand

Between 2000 and 2025, total demand for primary commercial energy could rise by 65% throughout the Mediterranean region. By 2025, as a result of changing demographics and lifestyles, the growth rate of energy demand in southern Mediterranean countries could represent four times the levels in developed countries. Fossil fuels would still cover 87% of the energy consumed (oil 40%), and renewable energies would remain marginal. These changes bring with them risks and challenges as well as geopolitical, socio-economic and environmental:
• An increase in energy dependence: in the producing Mediterranean countries, export capacities may be reduced due to the increase in domestic demand; other Mediterranean countries may be confronted with growing energy deficits. This situation may result in increased hydrocarbon imports, from 290 Mtep in 2000 to 530 Mtep by 2025.
• A rise in supply costs: in a context of higher and more volatile hydrocarbon prices, the massive growth in energy imports could weigh heavily on the cost of the energy bill for countries and households and have serious social implications.
• Environmental impact: in 1990, the region’s total CO2 emissions related to energy based activities accounted for 7% of the total global emissions (approximately 70% emitted on the North rim) and could reach 9% by 2025.

Alternatives: Energy efficiency and more intensive use of
renewables energies, two strategic priorities

The alternative scenario recommends more efficient use of energy (reducing network losses, housing insulation, household appliances, efficient industrial technologies, transport, etc.) combined with more intensive use of the Mediterranean potential in renewable energies (solar, wind). Using the technologies currently available, the renewable
energies (geothermal, solar, wind, hydraulic) could represent 14% of the primary energy balance by 2025 instead of the 4% of the baseline scenario. It is estimated that a more efficient use of energy, using currently available technologies, could bring savings of approximately 20% to 25% in total energy demand (depending on the countries and quantities of waste) by 2025. The housing and service sectors represent the most significant areas of energy savings, particularly on the Southern rim, where there is extensive demographic and urban growth.
The advantages of such a scenario:
• Total energy savings of 208 Mtep/yr in 2025, i.e. nearly half of the growth in demand forecast between 2000 and 2025.
• Limiting oil demands in 2025 at the 2000 level.
• Savings equal to half the current demand for natural gas.
• Reducing the average dependence index1 from 34% to 18% in the Mediterranean Basin between 2000 and 2025.
• Reducing all environmental risks and impacts due to consumption, transport and energy production, particularly as regards gaseous emissions (-25%), and CO2 in particular, and thereby participating to the objectives of the Kyoto protocol.
• Creating jobs in innovative sectors.
• Ensuring the sustainability of resources in producing countries to benefit future generations.

1 Index of dependence = [(demandproduction)/demand]